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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 189.47 (-19.6%) | 255.6 (+8.5%) | 317.34 (+34.7%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 172.59 (-26.7%) | 235.52 (+0.0%) | 321.39 (+36.5%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 175 (-25.7%) | 234.08 (-0.6%) | 272 (+15.5%) |
History since 1962; now 235.52. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI overbought
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 53.1% | 56.6% | 0.7% | 128 | 45%–62% | as usual |
| 3 months | 57.7% | 57.3% | 2.4% | 78 | 47%–68% | as usual |
| 1 year | 75.0% | 68.3% | 10.0% | 36 | 59%–86% | as usual |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 236 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.249 vs 0.247 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.