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| 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 176,383 | 144,766 | 129,881 | 122,687 |
| Net income | 5,234 | -1,131 | -1,982 | 324 | 2,090 | 2,083 | 2,720 | 3,630 | 3,990 | 2,289 | 4,065 | 3,122 | 2,422 | -1,421 | 930 | 11,528 | 8,835 | 2,770 | 2,348 |
| Gross margin | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 9.5% | 8.9% | 3.7% | 4.4% |
| Operating margin | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 8.9% | 8.2% | 2.9% | 3.5% |
| Net margin | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 6.5% | 6.1% | 2.1% | 1.9% |
| EPS | 8.12 | -1.97 | -3.35 | 0.52 | 3.68 | 3.75 | 4.97 | 6.85 | 7.99 | 4.94 | 9.16 | 7.29 | 5.84 | -3.5 | 2.27 | 29.04 | 24.92 | 8.58 | 7.57 |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | — | 1,683 | 2,339 | 3,443 | 2,088 | 3,993 | 3,542 | 4,129 | — | — | — | — | 10,893 | 8,318 | 5,776 | 5,030 |
| Net debt | — | -628 | 6,776 | 5,788 | 7,675 | 5,863 | 2,536 | 3,271 | 3,263 | 3,225 | 2,582 | 5,759 | 6,792 | 10,423 | 9,092 | 7,860 | 7,213 | 6,883 | 7,015 |
| P/E | 7.9 | — | — | 40.6 | 5.2 | 8.3 | 10.1 | 7.2 | 8.8 | 13.8 | 10 | 10.3 | 16 | — | 33.1 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 14.3 | 21.5 |
A what-if tool for a 5–10 year investor, not an answer: change the assumptions and see what they do.
| rate 6.9% | rate 7.9% | rate 8.9% | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear · growth -10.0% | 247.48 | 206.62 | 178.36 |
| Base · growth -5.0% | 337.82 | 278.93 | 238.31 |
| Bull · growth 0.0% | 458.96 | 375.37 | 317.88 |
FCF to shareholders 6,375 mln USD (operating cash flow − capex, after interest), shares 279 mln. Discounted at the shareholder rate, so debt is not subtracted again (assumes stable debt). 5 years of growth, 5 of slowdown, then perpetual growth. Sensitive to assumptions — see the table.