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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 9.95 (-39.8%) | 17.95 (+8.6%) | 32.96 (+99.5%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 9.87 (-40.2%) | 16.52 (+0.0%) | 27.64 (+67.3%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 20.5 (+24.1%) | 22.94 (+38.9%) | 24.62 (+49.0%) |
History since 1996; now 16.52. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: below SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 47.7% | 55.6% | -0.9% | 44 | 34%–62% | as usual |
| 3 months | 48.0% | 59.5% | -2.3% | 25 | 30%–67% | as usual |
| 1 year | 40.0% | 62.1% | -1.5% | 15 | 20%–64% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 98 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.252 vs 0.245 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.