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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 34.36 (-44.7%) | 90.95 (+46.5%) | 169.34 (+172.8%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 39.21 (-36.8%) | 62.08 (+0.0%) | 98.28 (+58.3%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 57 (-8.2%) | 84.76 (+36.5%) | 126 (+103.0%) |
History since 2002; now 62.08. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: below SMA200 · SMA50 < SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 52.6% | 58.7% | 1.9% | 78 | 42%–63% | as usual |
| 3 months | 56.7% | 66.0% | 6.8% | 30 | 39%–73% | as usual |
| 1 year | 66.7% | 69.6% | 61.2% | 12 | 39%–86% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 77 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.214 vs 0.220 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state adds a little knowledge.