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NFLX · Financials

Annual reports: Yahoo + SEC 10-K, amounts in millions of USD. P/E — year-end price / EPS; — if the price history does not reach that year.

	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025
Revenue	1,205	1,365	1,670	2,163	3,205	3,609	4,375	5,505	6,780	8,831	11,693	15,794	20,156	24,996	29,698	31,616	33,723	39,001	45,183
Net income	67	83	116	161	226	17	112	267	123	187	559	1,211	1,867	2,761	5,116	4,492	5,408	8,712	10,981
Gross margin	34.8%	33.3%	35.4%	37.2%	36.3%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	39.4%	41.5%	46.1%	48.5%
Operating margin	7.6%	8.9%	11.5%	13.1%	11.7%	1.4%	5.2%	7.3%	4.5%	4.3%	7.2%	10.2%	12.9%	18.3%	20.9%	17.8%	20.6%	26.7%	29.5%
Net margin	5.5%	6.1%	6.9%	7.4%	7.1%	0.5%	2.6%	4.8%	1.8%	2.1%	4.8%	7.7%	9.3%	11.0%	17.2%	14.2%	16.0%	22.3%	24.3%
EPS	0.01	0.02	0.03	0.04	0.06	0	0.03	0.06	0.03	0.04	0.13	0.27	0.41	0.61	1.12	1	1.2	1.98	2.53
Free cash flow	233	240	279	243	268	-19	44	-53	-841	-1,582	-1,959	-2,854	-3,140	1,929	-132	1,619	6,926	6,922	9,461
Net debt	—	-140	66	—	—	-90	-105	-228	562	1,897	3,677	6,566	9,741	8,103	9,338	8,295	7,405	5,999	5,400
P/E	27.4	22.6	27.8	59.4	16.7	319.3	202.3	78.7	408.5	287.9	153.6	99.9	78.3	88.9	53.6	29.6	40.5	44.9	37.1

Valuation by free cash flow (DCF)

A what-if tool for a 5–10 year investor, not an answer: change the assumptions and see what they do.

Value per share

30.52 USD

Upside to the estimate

-50.8%

No margin of safety: the price is above the DCF value.

Growth priced in

+26.8%

Reverse DCF: FCF growth for 5 years that makes today’s price fair. Compare with what you believe.

	rate 12.0%	rate 13.0%	rate 14.0%
Bear · growth 7.6%	26.29	23.65	21.46
Base · growth 12.6%	34.12	30.52	27.56
Bull · growth 17.6%	44.13	39.29	35.33

FCF to shareholders 7,770 mln USD (operating cash flow − capex, after interest), shares 4,164 mln. Discounted at the shareholder rate, so debt is not subtracted again (assumes stable debt). 5 years of growth, 5 of slowdown, then perpetual growth. Sensitive to assumptions — see the table.