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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 121.52 (-38.1%) | 223.24 (+13.7%) | 371.34 (+89.1%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 68.8 (-65.0%) | 196.4 (+0.0%) | 560.66 (+185.5%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 229.95 (+17.1%) | 340.56 (+73.4%) | 450 (+129.1%) |
History since 2000; now 196.4. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 58.2% | 57.4% | 2.7% | 182 | 51%–65% | as usual |
| 3 months | 57.6% | 58.4% | 7.0% | 66 | 46%–69% | as usual |
| 1 year | 61.9% | 56.0% | 24.3% | 21 | 41%–79% | as usual |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 84 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.263 vs 0.255 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.