Loading…
StockAnalyzerLoading…
A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 64.53 (-17.3%) | 88.87 (+13.9%) | 115.71 (+48.3%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 55.31 (-29.1%) | 78.03 (+0.0%) | 110.08 (+41.1%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 58 (-25.7%) | 73.27 (-6.1%) | 85 (+8.9%) |
History since 1962; now 78.03. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 56.8% | 57.9% | 0.8% | 488 | 52%–61% | as usual |
| 3 months | 60.0% | 63.5% | 2.6% | 180 | 53%–67% | as usual |
| 1 year | 73.2% | 77.8% | 13.3% | 56 | 60%–83% | as usual |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 237 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.247 vs 0.239 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.