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| 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 18,664 | 19,356 | 23,556 | 24,363 | 23,800 | 24,618 | 24,466 | 24,522 | 25,434 | 25,744 | 25,576 | 25,364 | 25,110 | 26,153 | 26,013 | 20,688 | 20,502 | 20,444 | 20,139 |
| Net income | 9,786 | 4,930 | 3,206 | 3,905 | 3,390 | 4,180 | 4,535 | 5,070 | 5,241 | 14,239 | 10,222 | 6,963 | -1,293 | 4,467 | 2,475 | 5,764 | 8,130 | 11,264 | 6,947 |
| Gross margin | 39.6% | 39.7% | 37.5% | 37.7% | 37.6% | 38.8% | 42.7% | 41.4% | 43.7% | 45.0% | 46.8% | 48.3% | 50.6% | 49.8% | 53.8% | 68.9% | 69.7% | 70.3% | 72.2% |
| Operating margin | 23.4% | 25.2% | 23.2% | 25.6% | 25.5% | 29.5% | 33.0% | 31.1% | 32.9% | 34.0% | 37.5% | 35.9% | 41.1% | 41.6% | 44.4% | 57.6% | 56.3% | 56.9% | 59.8% |
| Net margin | 52.4% | 25.5% | 13.6% | 16.0% | 14.2% | 17.0% | 18.5% | 20.7% | 20.6% | 55.3% | 40.0% | 27.5% | -5.1% | 17.1% | 9.5% | 27.9% | 39.7% | 55.1% | 34.5% |
| EPS | 4.62 | 2.36 | 1.54 | 1.87 | 1.64 | 2.06 | — | — | — | 7.28 | 5.31 | 3.68 | -0.7 | 2.4 | 1.34 | 3.19 | 4.57 | 6.54 | 4.12 |
| Free cash flow | 9,930 | 4,640 | 3,170 | 2,599 | 3,508 | 3,779 | 4,244 | 4,500 | 5,614 | 3,637 | 4,702 | 8,153 | 7,591 | 8,154 | 8,236 | 8,051 | 9,091 | 8,611 | 9,074 |
| Net debt | — | -942 | 10,089 | 9,880 | 10,419 | 10,978 | 11,342 | 11,372 | 10,478 | 9,312 | 12,641 | 24,413 | 25,925 | 24,526 | 23,500 | 22,650 | 22,547 | 21,799 | 21,235 |
| P/E | 16.4 | 6.4 | 12.7 | 13.2 | 18.1 | 15.3 | — | — | — | 9.3 | 13.4 | 13.4 | — | 17.1 | 35.4 | 14.3 | 8.8 | 8 | 14 |
A what-if tool for a 5–10 year investor, not an answer: change the assumptions and see what they do.
| rate 6.2% | rate 7.2% | rate 8.2% | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear · growth -10.0% | 67.11 | 54.33 | 45.96 |
| Base · growth -5.0% | 92.33 | 73.88 | 61.81 |
| Bull · growth 0.0% | 126.27 | 100.03 | 82.93 |
FCF to shareholders 8,925 mln USD (operating cash flow − capex, after interest), shares 1,663 mln. Discounted at the shareholder rate, so debt is not subtracted again (assumes stable debt). 5 years of growth, 5 of slowdown, then perpetual growth. Sensitive to assumptions — see the table.