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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 1,136.6 (-19.8%) | 1,557.9 (+9.9%) | 2,167.16 (+52.9%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 897.75 (-36.7%) | 1,417.54 (+0.0%) | 2,238.28 (+57.9%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 930 (-34.4%) | 1,403.64 (-1.0%) | 1,650 (+16.4%) |
History since 1972; now 1,417.54. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI overbought
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 53.4% | 55.7% | 0.9% | 116 | 44%–62% | as usual |
| 3 months | 56.0% | 57.5% | 2.6% | 75 | 45%–67% | as usual |
| 1 year | 62.5% | 67.9% | 14.9% | 32 | 45%–77% | as usual |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 197 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.250 vs 0.245 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.