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| 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 18,634 | 20,372 | 21,836 | 23,076 | 24,287 | 22,603 | 23,113 | 19,616 | 19,959 | 21,222 | 19,974 | 21,493 | 22,320 | 24,540 | 28,318 | 28,541 | 34,124 | 45,043 | 65,179 |
| Net income | 2,953 | -2,072 | 4,329 | 5,070 | 4,348 | 4,089 | 4,685 | 2,391 | 2,408 | 2,738 | -204 | 3,232 | 8,318 | 6,194 | 5,582 | 6,245 | 5,240 | 10,590 | 20,640 |
| Gross margin | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 76.8% | 79.2% | 81.3% | 83.0% |
| Operating margin | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 29.0% | 30.3% | 37.8% | 45.6% |
| Net margin | 15.8% | -10.2% | 19.8% | 22.0% | 17.9% | 18.1% | 20.3% | 12.2% | 12.1% | 12.9% | -1.0% | 15.0% | 37.3% | 25.2% | 19.7% | 21.9% | 15.4% | 23.5% | 31.7% |
| EPS | — | -1.89 | 3.94 | 4.58 | 3.9 | 3.66 | 4.32 | 2.23 | 2.26 | 2.58 | -0.19 | 3.13 | 8.89 | 6.79 | 6.12 | 6.57 | 5.8 | 11.71 | 22.95 |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 4,600 | -3,152 | 414 | 5,964 |
| Net debt | — | 4,965 | 2,179 | 952 | 2,581 | 1,524 | 2,395 | 6,831 | 4,312 | 7,022 | 9,808 | 3,477 | 14,474 | 12,938 | 13,066 | 14,027 | 22,298 | 30,376 | 35,235 |
| P/E | — | — | 9.1 | 7.7 | 10.7 | 13.5 | 11.8 | 30.9 | 37.3 | 28.5 | — | 37 | 14.8 | 24.9 | 45.1 | 55.7 | 100.5 | 65.9 | 46.8 |
A what-if tool for a 5–10 year investor, not an answer: change the assumptions and see what they do.
| rate 6.2% | rate 7.2% | rate 8.2% | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear · growth 15.0% | 70.36 | 54.44 | 44.15 |
| Base · growth 20.0% | 93.38 | 71.89 | 58.02 |
| Bull · growth 25.0% | 122.97 | 94.27 | 75.76 |
FCF to shareholders 1,075 mln USD (operating cash flow − capex, after interest), shares 891 mln. Discounted at the shareholder rate, so debt is not subtracted again (assumes stable debt). 5 years of growth, 5 of slowdown, then perpetual growth. Sensitive to assumptions — see the table.