Loading…
StockAnalyzerLoading…
A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 17.74 (-23.6%) | 26.33 (+13.4%) | 38.02 (+63.8%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 15.2 (-34.5%) | 23.22 (+0.0%) | 35.47 (+52.8%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 17 (-26.8%) | 27.98 (+20.5%) | 42 (+80.9%) |
History since 1980; now 23.22. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: below SMA200 · SMA50 < SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 54.7% | 55.8% | 1.5% | 192 | 48%–62% | as usual |
| 3 months | 52.6% | 58.5% | 4.9% | 76 | 42%–63% | as usual |
| 1 year | 57.1% | 66.7% | 14.6% | 28 | 39%–73% | as usual |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 166 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.255 vs 0.249 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.