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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 132.98 (-38.4%) | 243.79 (+12.9%) | 455.27 (+110.9%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 82.89 (-61.6%) | 215.9 (+0.0%) | 562.35 (+160.5%) |
History since 2001; now 215.9. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 55.3% | 52.2% | 2.3% | 159 | 48%–63% | as usual |
| 3 months | 59.0% | 56.7% | 6.2% | 61 | 46%–70% | as usual |
| 1 year | 63.2% | 62.5% | 21.8% | 19 | 41%–81% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 79 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.265 vs 0.252 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.