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| 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 193 | 361 | 584 | 838 | 1,129 | 1,646 | 2,151 | 2,411 | 2,318 | 2,948 | 4,381 | 5,860 | 7,003 | 9,006 |
| Net income | 21 | 42 | 87 | 121 | 184 | 423 | 328 | 860 | 635 | 841 | 1,352 | 2,087 | 2,852 | 3,511 |
| Gross margin | 68.3% | 66.0% | 67.1% | 64.9% | 64.0% | 64.5% | 63.8% | 64.1% | 63.9% | 63.8% | 61.1% | 61.9% | 64.1% | 64.1% |
| Operating margin | 20.6% | 18.3% | 21.5% | 17.8% | 21.6% | 28.6% | 12.7% | 33.4% | 30.2% | 31.4% | 34.9% | 38.5% | 42.0% | 42.8% |
| Net margin | 11.0% | 11.8% | 14.9% | 14.5% | 16.3% | 25.7% | 15.3% | 35.7% | 27.4% | 28.5% | 30.9% | 35.6% | 40.7% | 39.0% |
| EPS | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.1 | 0.16 | 0.33 | 0.25 | 0.67 | 0.5 | 0.66 | 1.07 | 1.65 | 2.23 | 2.75 |
| Free cash flow | 23 | 14 | 119 | 218 | 153 | 616 | 479 | 947 | — | — | 448 | 2,000 | 3,676 | 4,252 |
| Net debt | — | -15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | -2,980 | — | — | — |
| P/E | — | — | 47.1 | 46.6 | 38.7 | 44 | 51.9 | 19.1 | 36.3 | 54.7 | 28.4 | 35.8 | 49.6 | 47.6 |
A what-if tool for a 5–10 year investor, not an answer: change the assumptions and see what they do.
| rate 12.0% | rate 13.0% | rate 14.0% | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear · growth 15.0% | 54.65 | 48.76 | 43.92 |
| Base · growth 20.0% | 70.57 | 62.68 | 56.22 |
| Bull · growth 25.0% | 90.76 | 80.3 | 71.75 |
FCF to shareholders 3,309 mln USD (operating cash flow − capex, after interest), shares 1,261 mln. Discounted at the shareholder rate, so debt is not subtracted again (assumes stable debt). 5 years of growth, 5 of slowdown, then perpetual growth. Sensitive to assumptions — see the table.