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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 167.16 (-30.4%) | 302.83 (+26.0%) | 548.63 (+128.3%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 153.52 (-36.1%) | 240.35 (+0.0%) | 376.3 (+56.6%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 230 (-4.3%) | 327.09 (+36.1%) | 405 (+68.5%) |
History since 1997; now 240.35. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: below SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 68.2% | 61.2% | 5.0% | 44 | 53%–80% | as usual |
| 3 months | 70.4% | 60.5% | 8.7% | 27 | 52%–84% | as usual |
| 1 year | 80.0% | 75.0% | 34.5% | 15 | 55%–93% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 97 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.231 vs 0.223 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.