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| 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 16,283 | 17,970 | 14,143 | 16,965 | 19,557 | 20,926 | 21,963 | 23,988 | 21,813 | 19,941 | 21,240 | 22,832 | 21,708 | 19,533 | 21,804 | 24,875 | 24,119 | 24,250 | 24,510 |
| Net income | 1,855 | 2,335 | 1,890 | 2,780 | 3,292 | 3,943 | 4,388 | 5,180 | 4,772 | 4,233 | 10,712 | 5,966 | 5,919 | 5,349 | 6,523 | 6,998 | 6,379 | 6,747 | 7,138 |
| Gross margin | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 45.0% | 43.7% | 45.5% | 45.8% |
| Operating margin | 20.7% | 22.6% | 23.9% | 29.4% | 29.3% | 32.2% | 33.9% | 36.5% | 36.9% | 36.3% | 38.2% | 37.3% | 39.4% | 40.1% | 42.8% | 39.9% | 37.7% | 40.1% | 40.2% |
| Net margin | 11.4% | 13.0% | 13.4% | 16.4% | 16.8% | 18.8% | 20.0% | 21.6% | 21.9% | 21.2% | 50.4% | 26.1% | 27.3% | 27.4% | 29.9% | 28.1% | 26.4% | 27.8% | 29.1% |
| EPS | 1.73 | 2.27 | 1.87 | 2.77 | 3.36 | 4.14 | 4.71 | 5.75 | 5.49 | 5.07 | 13.36 | 7.91 | 8.38 | 7.88 | 9.95 | 11.21 | 10.45 | 11.09 | 11.98 |
| Free cash flow | 781 | 1,290 | 850 | 1,623 | 2,697 | 2,423 | — | — | — | — | 3,992 | 5,249 | 5,156 | 5,613 | 6,096 | 5,742 | 4,773 | 5,894 | 5,499 |
| Net debt | — | — | 7,998 | 8,156 | 7,689 | 7,934 | 8,145 | 9,827 | 12,810 | 13,730 | 15,669 | 21,318 | 24,569 | 25,005 | 29,169 | 33,938 | 33,108 | 31,427 | 31,306 |
| P/E | 18.2 | 10.6 | 17.1 | 16.8 | 15.8 | 15.2 | 17.8 | 20.7 | 14.2 | 20.4 | 10 | 17.5 | 21.6 | 26.4 | 25.3 | 18.5 | 23.5 | 20.6 | 19.3 |
A what-if tool for a 5–10 year investor, not an answer: change the assumptions and see what they do.
| rate 8.7% | rate 9.7% | rate 10.7% | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear · growth -0.4% | 127.27 | 110.07 | 97.05 |
| Base · growth 4.6% | 169.51 | 145.52 | 127.4 |
| Bull · growth 9.6% | 224.76 | 191.71 | 166.81 |
FCF to shareholders 5,389 mln USD (operating cash flow − capex, after interest), shares 594 mln. Discounted at the shareholder rate, so debt is not subtracted again (assumes stable debt). 5 years of growth, 5 of slowdown, then perpetual growth. Sensitive to assumptions — see the table.