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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 78.5 (-17.7%) | 103.97 (+9.1%) | 124.82 (+30.9%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 69.21 (-27.4%) | 95.33 (+0.0%) | 131.31 (+37.7%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 81 (-15.0%) | 100.39 (+5.3%) | 119 (+24.8%) |
History since 1991; now 95.33. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 52.5% | 56.6% | 0.3% | 263 | 46%–58% | as usual |
| 3 months | 60.4% | 52.2% | 1.3% | 96 | 50%–70% | as usual |
| 1 year | 66.7% | 70.6% | 6.1% | 30 | 49%–81% | as usual |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 119 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.253 vs 0.248 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.