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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 156.79 (-19.9%) | 209.25 (+6.9%) | 289.94 (+48.2%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 140.22 (-28.4%) | 195.71 (+0.0%) | 273.16 (+39.6%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 230 (+17.5%) | 234.08 (+19.6%) | 239.31 (+22.3%) |
History since 1980; now 195.71. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: below SMA200 · SMA50 < SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 49.1% | 51.1% | 0.5% | 222 | 43%–56% | as usual |
| 3 months | 46.3% | 56.3% | 1.4% | 82 | 36%–57% | as usual |
| 1 year | 57.1% | 62.2% | 10.1% | 28 | 39%–73% | as usual |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 165 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.260 vs 0.248 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.