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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 23.37 (-24.1%) | 37.32 (+21.2%) | 59.23 (+92.3%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 14.37 (-53.4%) | 30.8 (+0.0%) | 66.03 (+114.4%) |
History since 2010; now 30.8. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: below SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 56.0% | 55.2% | 5.1% | 25 | 37%–73% | as usual |
| 3 months | 62.5% | 57.8% | 11.0% | 16 | 39%–82% | weak signal (few cases) |
| 1 year | 54.5% | 68.8% | 32.3% | 11 | 28%–79% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 46 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.269 vs 0.254 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.