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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 126.1 (-23.5%) | 180.86 (+9.8%) | 295.43 (+79.3%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 82.44 (-50.0%) | 164.79 (+0.0%) | 329.42 (+99.9%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 100 (-39.3%) | 196.3 (+19.1%) | 400 (+142.7%) |
History since 1991; now 164.79. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: below SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 51.6% | 55.9% | 1.1% | 64 | 40%–63% | as usual |
| 3 months | 64.3% | 55.1% | 5.4% | 42 | 49%–77% | as usual |
| 1 year | 77.3% | 61.8% | 41.4% | 22 | 57%–90% | as usual |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 116 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.256 vs 0.254 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.