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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 235.36 (-16.8%) | 318.77 (+12.7%) | 422.72 (+49.5%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 186.71 (-34.0%) | 282.83 (+0.0%) | 428.44 (+51.5%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 188 (-33.5%) | 291.79 (+3.2%) | 350 (+23.7%) |
History since 2012; now 282.83. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 55.7% | 56.7% | 1.2% | 97 | 46%–65% | as usual |
| 3 months | 58.3% | 57.4% | 4.4% | 36 | 42%–73% | as usual |
| 1 year | 66.7% | 61.5% | 11.4% | 12 | 39%–86% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 37 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.252 vs 0.226 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.