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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 198.93 (-14.0%) | 273.55 (+18.3%) | 392.81 (+69.8%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 163.14 (-29.5%) | 231.28 (+0.0%) | 327.88 (+41.8%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 196 (-15.3%) | 230.38 (-0.4%) | 262 (+13.3%) |
History since 1980; now 231.28. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 58.8% | 56.5% | 1.5% | 359 | 54%–64% | as usual |
| 3 months | 61.2% | 58.5% | 4.8% | 134 | 53%–69% | as usual |
| 1 year | 73.2% | 77.8% | 20.6% | 41 | 58%–84% | as usual |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 166 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.242 vs 0.239 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.