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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 26.01 (-34.1%) | 46.95 (+19.0%) | 61.4 (+55.6%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 21.45 (-45.6%) | 39.45 (+0.0%) | 72.54 (+83.9%) |
History since 2010; now 39.45. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: below SMA200 · SMA50 < SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 57.4% | 58.4% | -0.0% | 54 | 44%–70% | as usual |
| 3 months | 55.0% | 54.0% | -0.0% | 20 | 34%–74% | as usual |
| 1 year | 55.6% | 80.0% | 16.3% | 9 | 27%–81% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 46 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.216 vs 0.219 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state adds a little knowledge.