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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 73.37 (-31.2%) | 112.84 (+5.8%) | 166.9 (+56.6%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 57.71 (-45.9%) | 106.61 (+0.0%) | 196.93 (+84.7%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 70 (-34.3%) | 135.46 (+27.1%) | 165 (+54.8%) |
History since 1980; now 106.61. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: below SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 52.7% | 50.2% | 1.6% | 93 | 43%–63% | as usual |
| 3 months | 53.7% | 54.6% | 3.5% | 54 | 41%–66% | as usual |
| 1 year | 51.7% | 51.1% | 8.5% | 29 | 34%–69% | as usual |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 166 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.257 vs 0.249 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.