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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 477.64 (-46.0%) | 981.26 (+10.9%) | 2,236.61 (+152.8%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 310.46 (-64.9%) | 884.74 (+0.0%) | 2,521.35 (+185.0%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 361 (-59.2%) | 1,561.91 (+76.5%) | 3,000 (+239.1%) |
History since 1984; now 884.74. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 57.4% | 55.3% | 4.0% | 258 | 51%–63% | as usual |
| 3 months | 66.3% | 57.8% | 11.7% | 98 | 57%–75% | as usual |
| 1 year | 66.7% | 61.0% | 60.0% | 33 | 50%–80% | as usual |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 147 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.253 vs 0.248 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.