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MPC · Financials

Annual reports: Yahoo + SEC 10-K, amounts in millions of USD. P/E — year-end price / EPS; — if the price history does not reach that year.

	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025
Revenue	45,530	62,487	78,638	82,243	100,160	97,817	72,051	—	—	86,086	111,148	69,779	119,983	177,453	148,379	138,864	132,699
Net income	449	623	2,389	3,389	2,112	2,524	2,852	1,174	3,432	2,780	2,637	-9,826	9,738	14,516	9,681	3,445	4,047
Gross margin	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	12.7%	11.1%	6.7%	7.5%
Operating margin	1.8%	1.6%	4.8%	6.5%	3.4%	4.1%	6.5%	—	—	5.4%	4.0%	-17.6%	3.6%	10.7%	8.5%	3.8%	4.3%
Net margin	1.0%	1.0%	3.0%	4.1%	2.1%	2.6%	4.0%	—	—	3.2%	2.4%	-14.1%	8.1%	8.2%	6.5%	2.5%	3.0%
EPS	0.63	0.87	3.34	4.95	3.32	4.39	5.26	2.21	6.7	5.28	3.97	-15.13	15.24	28.12	23.63	10.08	13.22
Free cash flow	-436	1,000	2,124	3,123	2,199	1,630	2,075	1,125	3,880	2,979	4,631	-368	2,896	13,941	12,227	6,132	4,767
Net debt	—	161	228	-4,841	-2,269	-1,467	-1,098	-859	-2,387	-1,143	-689	2,439	-4,720	16,139	18,277	25,548	30,686
P/E	—	—	5	6.4	13.8	10.3	9.9	22.8	9.8	11.2	15.2	—	4.2	4.1	6.3	13.8	12.3

Valuation by free cash flow (DCF)

A what-if tool for a 5–10 year investor, not an answer: change the assumptions and see what they do.

Value per share

1,005.93 USD

Upside to the estimate

+126.2%

Margin of safety 55.8%: investors often want 20–30% for forecast errors.

Growth priced in

-0.4%

Reverse DCF: FCF growth for 5 years that makes today’s price fair. Compare with what you believe.

	rate 6.6%	rate 7.6%	rate 8.6%
Bear · growth 8.7%	948.87	757.09	628.14
Base · growth 13.7%	1,268.46	1,005.93	829.68
Bull · growth 18.7%	1,683.03	1,327.8	1,089.64

FCF to shareholders 7,709 mln USD (operating cash flow − capex, after interest), shares 292 mln. Discounted at the shareholder rate, so debt is not subtracted again (assumes stable debt). 5 years of growth, 5 of slowdown, then perpetual growth. Sensitive to assumptions — see the table.