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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 35.29 (-27.6%) | 51.63 (+5.9%) | 76.38 (+56.7%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 29.54 (-39.4%) | 48.75 (+0.0%) | 80.45 (+65.0%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 33 (-32.3%) | 40.71 (-16.5%) | 51 (+4.6%) |
History since 2001; now 48.75. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 54.5% | 54.8% | 1.2% | 167 | 47%–62% | as usual |
| 3 months | 55.7% | 59.2% | 2.7% | 61 | 43%–67% | as usual |
| 1 year | 45.0% | 50.0% | 10.1% | 20 | 26%–66% | as usual |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 81 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.258 vs 0.254 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.