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| 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 39,540 | 36,117 | 40,040 | 43,218 | 46,061 | 48,607 | 47,142 | 49,161 | 49,247 | 48,005 | 49,330 | 51,904 | 49,301 | 49,818 | 51,557 | 56,998 | 53,803 | 56,654 | 63,325 |
| Net income | 8,052 | 6,134 | 7,767 | 6,490 | 8,041 | 9,983 | 7,853 | 8,981 | 10,739 | 9,609 | 110 | 11,621 | 11,214 | 10,591 | 11,812 | 12,613 | 10,320 | 10,180 | 13,267 |
| Gross margin | 64.1% | 63.9% | 64.0% | 61.4% | 61.2% | 60.6% | 58.9% | 60.4% | 62.9% | 63.0% | 62.0% | 62.9% | 64.3% | 64.0% | 62.5% | 62.7% | 64.7% | 64.9% | 64.5% |
| Operating margin | 23.9% | 20.3% | 22.9% | 17.8% | 21.9% | 23.0% | 19.8% | 21.9% | 25.7% | 24.9% | 25.0% | 27.4% | 27.6% | 25.8% | 27.1% | 27.3% | 24.1% | 22.1% | 25.4% |
| Net margin | 20.4% | 17.0% | 19.4% | 15.0% | 17.5% | 20.5% | 16.7% | 18.3% | 21.8% | 20.0% | 0.2% | 22.4% | 22.7% | 21.3% | 22.9% | 22.1% | 19.2% | 18.0% | 21.0% |
| EPS | 1.31 | 1.05 | 1.33 | 1.17 | 1.49 | 1.86 | 1.49 | 1.75 | 2.11 | 1.9 | 0.02 | 2.61 | 2.64 | 2.5 | 2.82 | 3.07 | 2.54 | 2.61 | 3.33 |
| Free cash flow | 10,821 | 8,892 | 9,165 | 8,905 | 10,365 | 11,734 | — | — | 12,424 | 12,912 | 12,832 | 14,922 | 14,656 | 14,762 | 12,749 | 19,037 | 10,210 | 13,288 | 12,767 |
| Net debt | — | -24,706 | -24,636 | -27,175 | 6,529 | 8,276 | 14,111 | 18,474 | -37,114 | -40,020 | -20,979 | -12,940 | -14,836 | 2,351 | 1,836 | -17,755 | 13,119 | 11,983 | 13,615 |
| P/E | 17.1 | 20.8 | 17.3 | 13.6 | 10.5 | 13.7 | 17.4 | 16.2 | 14.5 | 16.6 | 2,128.5 | 21.7 | 17.6 | 22.1 | 16.1 | 17 | 19.1 | 26.1 | 34.3 |
A what-if tool for a 5–10 year investor, not an answer: change the assumptions and see what they do.
| rate 8.8% | rate 9.8% | rate 10.8% | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear · growth -0.1% | 42.86 | 37.15 | 32.81 |
| Base · growth 4.9% | 57.01 | 49.06 | 43.03 |
| Bull · growth 9.9% | 75.51 | 64.57 | 56.29 |
FCF to shareholders 12,088 mln USD (operating cash flow − capex, after interest), shares 3,943 mln. Discounted at the shareholder rate, so debt is not subtracted again (assumes stable debt). 5 years of growth, 5 of slowdown, then perpetual growth. Sensitive to assumptions — see the table.