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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 40.27 (-28.2%) | 63.13 (+12.5%) | 103.53 (+84.5%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 37.75 (-32.7%) | 56.11 (+0.0%) | 83.4 (+48.6%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 44.34 (-21.0%) | 49.41 (-11.9%) | 59.22 (+5.6%) |
History since 2000; now 56.11. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI overbought
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 58.6% | 56.3% | 2.4% | 58 | 46%–70% | as usual |
| 3 months | 66.7% | 64.4% | 4.5% | 36 | 50%–80% | as usual |
| 1 year | 66.7% | 64.0% | 23.3% | 15 | 42%–85% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 84 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.267 vs 0.248 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.