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CNQ · Financials

Annual reports: Yahoo, amounts in millions of CAD. P/E — year-end price / EPS; — if the price history does not reach that year.

	2022	2023	2024	2025
Revenue	49,530	40,835	41,509	44,167
Net income	10,937	8,233	6,106	10,820
Gross margin	32.8%	28.8%	26.3%	21.3%
Operating margin	29.8%	25.6%	23.4%	18.6%
Net margin	22.1%	20.2%	14.7%	24.5%
EPS	4.76	3.74	2.85	5.16
Free cash flow	14,255	7,444	8,003	8,315
Net debt	10,034	9,397	18,688	15,944
P/E	—	—	—	—

Valuation by free cash flow (DCF)

A what-if tool for a 5–10 year investor, not an answer: change the assumptions and see what they do.

Value per share

27.73 USD

Upside to the estimate

-50.6%

No margin of safety: the price is above the DCF value.

Growth priced in

+8.9%

Reverse DCF: FCF growth for 5 years that makes today’s price fair. Compare with what you believe.

	rate 8.6%	rate 9.6%	rate 10.6%
Bear · growth -8.7%	23.84	20.91	18.68
Base · growth -3.7%	31.92	27.73	24.56
Bull · growth 1.3%	42.63	36.74	32.29

FCF to shareholders 5,664 mln USD (operating cash flow − capex, after interest), shares 2,062 mln. Discounted at the shareholder rate, so debt is not subtracted again (assumes stable debt). 5 years of growth, 5 of slowdown, then perpetual growth. Sensitive to assumptions — see the table.