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BTI · Financials

Annual reports: Yahoo, amounts in millions of GBP. P/E — year-end price / EPS; — if the price history does not reach that year.

	2022	2023	2024	2025
Revenue	27,655	27,283	25,867	25,610
Net income	6,666	-14,367	3,068	7,764
Gross margin	83.5%	83.0%	82.9%	83.5%
Operating margin	51.6%	-31.3%	41.1%	45.5%
Net margin	24.1%	-52.7%	11.9%	30.3%
EPS	2.92	-6.47	1.36	3.49
Free cash flow	9,738	10,113	9,517	5,638
Net debt	40,849	36,766	33,551	31,562
P/E	—	—	—	—

Valuation by free cash flow (DCF)

A what-if tool for a 5–10 year investor, not an answer: change the assumptions and see what they do.

⚠️ CAPM gave a rate outside 6–15% — clamped; check beta and set the rate yourself.

Value per share

112.52 USD

Upside to the estimate

+82.9%

Margin of safety 45.3%: investors often want 20–30% for forecast errors.

Growth priced in

-11.9%

Reverse DCF: FCF growth for 5 years that makes today’s price fair. Compare with what you believe.

	rate 5.0%	rate 6.0%	rate 7.0%
Bear · growth -7.5%	112.05	81.8	64.93
Base · growth -2.5%	155.98	112.52	88.33
Bull · growth 2.5%	215.17	153.7	119.55

FCF to shareholders 11,299 mln USD (operating cash flow − capex, after interest), shares 2,149 mln. Discounted at the shareholder rate, so debt is not subtracted again (assumes stable debt). 5 years of growth, 5 of slowdown, then perpetual growth. Sensitive to assumptions — see the table.