Loading…
StockAnalyzerLoading…
A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 6.07 (-26.8%) | 8.44 (+1.8%) | 10.63 (+28.2%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 4.94 (-40.4%) | 8.29 (+0.0%) | 13.92 (+67.9%) |
History since 2009; now 8.29. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 48.2% | 50.0% | -0.4% | 112 | 39%–57% | as usual |
| 3 months | 51.2% | 53.7% | -0.5% | 43 | 37%–65% | as usual |
| 1 year | 40.0% | 56.3% | -2.9% | 15 | 20%–64% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 50 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.285 vs 0.254 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.