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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 300.12 (-28.0%) | 469.78 (+12.6%) | 739.92 (+77.4%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 261.07 (-37.4%) | 417.11 (+0.0%) | 666.41 (+59.8%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 365 (-12.5%) | 472.44 (+13.3%) | 675 (+61.8%) |
History since 1980; now 417.11. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 52.9% | 55.8% | 1.5% | 344 | 48%–58% | as usual |
| 3 months | 61.3% | 57.9% | 4.3% | 124 | 53%–69% | as usual |
| 1 year | 61.5% | 64.4% | 22.3% | 39 | 46%–75% | as usual |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 165 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.254 vs 0.243 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.