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| 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 25,314 | 23,171 | 23,094 | 27,353 | 29,778 | 30,394 | 31,875 | 32,914 | 34,798 | 36,177 | 40,993 | 43,215 | 44,327 | 50,533 | 61,594 | 64,112 | 64,896 | 69,673 | 74,183 |
| Net income | 1,692 | 1,590 | 1,781 | 2,278 | 2,554 | 3,282 | 2,941 | 3,054 | 4,112 | 3,445 | 4,060 | 4,779 | 5,108 | 5,907 | 6,877 | 6,872 | 7,265 | 7,678 | 8,367 |
| Gross margin | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 32.3% | 32.6% | 31.9% | 32.0% |
| Operating margin | 11.9% | 11.4% | 12.6% | 12.7% | 13.0% | 14.3% | 13.5% | 13.5% | 13.8% | 14.4% | 14.4% | 14.6% | 14.7% | 15.1% | 15.2% | 13.7% | 14.8% | 14.7% | 15.4% |
| Net margin | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 11.8% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 11.1% | 11.5% | 11.7% | 11.2% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 11.3% |
| EPS | 2.64 | 2.44 | 2.66 | 3.39 | 3.84 | 4.93 | 4.52 | 4.76 | 6.45 | 5.44 | 6.34 | 7.36 | 7.89 | 9.16 | 10.71 | 10.77 | 11.44 | 12.15 | 13.56 |
| Free cash flow | 2,483 | 2,917 | 2,853 | 3,038 | 3,885 | 2,934 | 3,164 | 3,781 | 4,171 | 4,457 | 5,408 | 6,028 | 7,616 | 8,395 | 8,823 | 8,996 | 8,615 | 10,874 | 11,621 |
| Net debt | — | -4,541 | -4,838 | -5,697 | -6,641 | -5,632 | -4,921 | -4,359 | -4,903 | -4,124 | -5,056 | -6,120 | -8,408 | -8,156 | -7,881 | -5,901 | -889 | -3,302 | 559 |
| P/E | 15.7 | 13.5 | 13.8 | 15.8 | 16 | 14.7 | 17.9 | 19.8 | 17.8 | 24 | 26.7 | 26.9 | 30.4 | 36.7 | 26.9 | 30.1 | 29.9 | 21.4 | 14 |
A what-if tool for a 5–10 year investor, not an answer: change the assumptions and see what they do.
| rate 9.4% | rate 10.4% | rate 11.4% | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear · growth 3.0% | 257.16 | 224.62 | 199.36 |
| Base · growth 8.0% | 339.81 | 294.88 | 260.09 |
| Bull · growth 13.0% | 447.09 | 385.77 | 338.39 |
FCF to shareholders 10,370 mln USD (operating cash flow − capex, after interest), shares 612 mln. Discounted at the shareholder rate, so debt is not subtracted again (assumes stable debt). 5 years of growth, 5 of slowdown, then perpetual growth. Sensitive to assumptions — see the table.