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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 54.91 (-20.7%) | 78.98 (+14.1%) | 140.14 (+102.4%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 36.66 (-47.1%) | 69.24 (+0.0%) | 130.78 (+88.9%) |
History since 2011; now 69.24. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: below SMA200 · SMA50 < SMA200 · RSI oversold
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 61.3% | 50.6% | 4.0% | 31 | 44%–76% | as usual |
| 3 months | 72.2% | 51.8% | 9.7% | 18 | 49%–88% | weak signal (few cases) |
| 1 year | 77.8% | 64.3% | 26.2% | 9 | 45%–94% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 39 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.241 vs 0.240 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.