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TCEHY · Financials

Annual reports: Yahoo, amounts in millions of CNY. P/E — year-end price / EPS; — if the price history does not reach that year.

	2022	2023	2024	2025
Revenue	554,552	609,015	660,257	751,766
Net income	188,243	115,216	194,073	224,842
Gross margin	43.1%	48.1%	52.9%	56.2%
Operating margin	20.5%	27.2%	31.6%	33.1%
Net margin	33.9%	18.9%	29.4%	29.9%
EPS	19.34	11.89	20.49	24.15
Free cash flow	95,241	174,555	162,473	190,171
Net debt	68,385	-7,915	14,953	-20,354
P/E	—	—	—	—

Valuation by free cash flow (DCF)

A what-if tool for a 5–10 year investor, not an answer: change the assumptions and see what they do.

Value per share

78.02 USD

Upside to the estimate

+59.1%

Margin of safety 37.1%: investors often want 20–30% for forecast errors.

Growth priced in

+2.5%

Reverse DCF: FCF growth for 5 years that makes today’s price fair. Compare with what you believe.

	rate 7.6%	rate 8.6%	rate 9.6%
Bear · growth 5.7%	70.66	58.88	50.4
Base · growth 10.7%	94.24	78.02	66.37
Bull · growth 15.7%	124.9	102.82	87

FCF to shareholders 26,490 mln USD (operating cash flow − capex, after interest), shares 9,005 mln. Discounted at the shareholder rate, so debt is not subtracted again (assumes stable debt). 5 years of growth, 5 of slowdown, then perpetual growth. Sensitive to assumptions — see the table.