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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 76.37 (-15.4%) | 91.06 (+0.9%) | 114.57 (+27.0%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 59.34 (-34.2%) | 90.22 (+0.0%) | 137.17 (+52.0%) |
History since 2008; now 90.22. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 < SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 50.0% | 53.8% | -0.8% | 40 | 35%–65% | as usual |
| 3 months | 56.0% | 57.1% | 1.1% | 25 | 37%–73% | as usual |
| 1 year | 53.8% | 52.9% | 4.1% | 13 | 29%–77% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 54 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.264 vs 0.260 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.