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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 13.02 (-51.7%) | 28.9 (+7.3%) | 55.56 (+106.2%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 6.25 (-76.8%) | 26.94 (+0.0%) | 116.16 (+331.2%) |
History since 1998; now 26.94. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: below SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 52.4% | 50.6% | 2.1% | 42 | 38%–67% | as usual |
| 3 months | 53.8% | 50.0% | 6.9% | 26 | 35%–71% | as usual |
| 1 year | 50.0% | 63.0% | 39.6% | 16 | 28%–72% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 90 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.259 vs 0.254 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.