Loading…
StockAnalyzerLoading…
A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 129.98 (-26.8%) | 201.89 (+13.7%) | 334.61 (+88.5%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 90.95 (-48.8%) | 177.53 (+0.0%) | 346.52 (+95.2%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 139.43 (-21.5%) | 178.19 (+0.4%) | 275 (+54.9%) |
History since 1996; now 177.53. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: below SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 49.0% | 52.1% | 0.2% | 49 | 36%–63% | as usual |
| 3 months | 50.0% | 60.5% | 2.2% | 32 | 34%–66% | as usual |
| 1 year | 57.9% | 62.1% | 18.2% | 19 | 36%–77% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 102 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.266 vs 0.247 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.