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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 79.48 (-24.5%) | 108.02 (+2.6%) | 149.56 (+42.1%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 58.93 (-44.0%) | 105.29 (+0.0%) | 188.12 (+78.7%) |
History since 2009; now 105.29. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: below SMA200 · SMA50 < SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 51.3% | 53.4% | 1.1% | 78 | 40%–62% | as usual |
| 3 months | 55.2% | 53.1% | 2.6% | 29 | 38%–72% | as usual |
| 1 year | 63.6% | 56.3% | -2.9% | 11 | 35%–85% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 47 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.272 vs 0.255 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.