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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 63.47 (-22.5%) | 88.12 (+7.6%) | 123.26 (+50.5%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 55.16 (-32.6%) | 81.89 (+0.0%) | 121.56 (+48.4%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 82 (+0.1%) | 102.71 (+25.4%) | 117 (+42.9%) |
History since 1990; now 81.89. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: below SMA200 · SMA50 < SMA200 · RSI oversold
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 62.1% | 53.8% | 2.1% | 29 | 44%–77% | as usual |
| 3 months | 57.1% | 56.3% | 3.4% | 21 | 37%–76% | as usual |
| 1 year | 53.8% | 57.1% | 11.7% | 13 | 29%–77% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 125 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.240 vs 0.241 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.