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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 0.87 (-35.2%) | 1.38 (+2.3%) | 1.96 (+45.3%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 0.68 (-49.7%) | 1.35 (+0.0%) | 2.68 (+98.8%) |
History since 2009; now 1.35. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 < SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 59.1% | 47.5% | -1.8% | 22 | 39%–77% | as usual |
| 3 months | 50.0% | 47.8% | -1.6% | 14 | 27%–73% | weak signal (few cases) |
| 1 year | 60.0% | 37.5% | 10.4% | 10 | 31%–83% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 50 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.254 vs 0.255 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.