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| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 119 | 255 | 396 | 598 | 928 | 1,379 | 1,762 | 2,273 | 2,900 | 3,408 | 4,256 | 5,502 | 6,893 | 8,027 | 9,221 | 11,480 |
| Net income | -13 | 1 | -29 | -227 | -131 | -193 | -203 | -122 | -82 | -267 | -499 | -267 | 440 | 2,578 | 1,134 | 307 |
| Gross margin | 72.8% | 72.3% | 72.3% | 73.3% | 72.9% | 73.2% | 72.6% | 71.6% | 72.1% | 70.7% | 70.0% | 68.8% | 72.3% | 74.3% | 73.4% | 70.4% |
| Operating margin | -8.8% | 1.5% | -4.7% | -36.0% | -10.8% | -11.4% | -9.4% | -4.6% | -1.9% | -5.3% | -7.1% | -3.4% | 5.6% | 8.5% | 13.5% | 6.1% |
| Net margin | -10.6% | 0.3% | -7.4% | -37.9% | -14.1% | -14.0% | -11.5% | -5.4% | -2.8% | -7.8% | -11.7% | -4.9% | 6.4% | 32.1% | 12.3% | 2.7% |
| EPS | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | -0.15 | -0.46 | -0.87 | -0.45 | 0.64 | 3.64 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2,631 | 3,101 | 3,469 | 4,113 |
| Net debt | — | — | — | -187 | 111 | -234 | -220 | -587 | 469 | 126 | 1,352 | 1,558 | -119 | -1,234 | -2,566 | -571 |
| P/E | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 195.3 | 44.6 | 108.5 | 829.6 |
A what-if tool for a 5–10 year investor, not an answer: change the assumptions and see what they do.
| rate 8.6% | rate 9.6% | rate 10.6% | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear · growth 15.0% | 147.75 | 124.97 | 107.92 |
| Base · growth 20.0% | 193.78 | 163.13 | 140.21 |
| Bull · growth 25.0% | 252.6 | 211.78 | 181.29 |
FCF to shareholders 3,561 mln USD (operating cash flow − capex, after interest), shares 818 mln. Discounted at the shareholder rate, so debt is not subtracted again (assumes stable debt). 5 years of growth, 5 of slowdown, then perpetual growth. Sensitive to assumptions — see the table.