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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 14.67 (-14.0%) | 18.02 (+5.7%) | 20.85 (+22.3%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 10.39 (-39.1%) | 17.05 (+0.0%) | 27.98 (+64.1%) |
History since 2010; now 17.05. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 < SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 58.3% | 52.4% | 1.3% | 24 | 39%–76% | as usual |
| 3 months | 62.5% | 59.7% | 1.8% | 16 | 39%–82% | weak signal (few cases) |
| 1 year | 62.5% | 60.0% | 4.8% | 8 | 31%–86% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 44 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.266 vs 0.258 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.