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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 15.48 (-28.2%) | 22.06 (+2.3%) | 32 (+48.4%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 15.37 (-28.7%) | 21.56 (+0.0%) | 30.24 (+40.3%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 21 (-2.6%) | 23.77 (+10.2%) | 26.53 (+23.1%) |
History since 2001; now 21.56. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 50.7% | 53.4% | 0.8% | 150 | 43%–59% | as usual |
| 3 months | 51.8% | 45.9% | 1.9% | 56 | 39%–64% | as usual |
| 1 year | 55.6% | 50.0% | 5.7% | 18 | 34%–75% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 82 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.258 vs 0.255 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.