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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 6.7 (-30.7%) | 9.43 (-2.4%) | 13.74 (+42.3%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 6.31 (-34.6%) | 9.66 (+0.0%) | 14.78 (+53.0%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 10.2 (+5.6%) | 11.64 (+20.5%) | 13.07 (+35.3%) |
History since 2006; now 9.66. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 47.3% | 48.5% | 0.7% | 112 | 38%–57% | as usual |
| 3 months | 47.5% | 51.3% | 1.7% | 40 | 33%–63% | as usual |
| 1 year | 46.2% | 52.6% | 0.8% | 13 | 23%–71% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 57 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.267 vs 0.260 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.