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| 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,520 | 1,821 | 3,175 | 3,172 | 2,843 | 2,929 | 2,814 | 2,984 | 3,480 | 4,037 | 4,569 | 5,806 | 6,919 | 9,212 | 10,496 | 9,812 | 12,156 | 13,579 |
| Net income | -523 | 212 | 794 | 756 | 543 | 583 | 366 | 704 | 926 | 802 | 1,176 | 1,217 | 2,078 | 3,322 | 3,387 | 2,762 | 4,062 | 4,831 |
| Gross margin | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 59.8% | 60.0% | 60.9% | 61.3% |
| Operating margin | -38.0% | 17.3% | 36.5% | 32.0% | 25.7% | 26.4% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 38.1% | 37.1% | 41.2% | 41.7% |
| Net margin | -34.4% | 11.7% | 25.0% | 23.8% | 19.1% | 19.9% | 13.0% | 23.6% | 26.6% | 19.9% | 25.7% | 21.0% | 30.0% | 36.1% | 32.3% | 28.1% | 33.4% | 35.6% |
| EPS | -0.31 | 0.12 | 0.47 | 0.44 | 0.32 | 0.35 | 0.22 | 0.45 | 0.59 | 0.51 | 0.75 | 0.77 | 1.34 | 2.19 | 2.42 | 2.03 | 3.04 | 3.66 |
| Free cash flow | 173 | 418 | 772 | 884 | 839 | 711 | 560 | 728 | 1,041 | 1,162 | 1,022 | 1,626 | 1,953 | 3,005 | 3,328 | 3,031 | 3,747 | 3,767 |
| Net debt | — | — | — | — | — | 114 | 2,352 | 1,949 | 1,777 | 833 | 2,407 | 2,235 | 2,008 | 5,076 | 2,820 | 2,316 | 1,594 | 1,249 |
| P/E | — | 22.7 | 8.7 | 11.1 | 17.4 | 20.9 | 25.1 | 16.3 | 15.6 | 20.1 | 15.8 | 25.3 | 24.2 | 14.6 | 20.1 | 40.7 | 29.5 | 82.4 |
A what-if tool for a 5–10 year investor, not an answer: change the assumptions and see what they do.
| rate 11.2% | rate 12.2% | rate 13.2% | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear · growth 9.4% | 46.25 | 41.12 | 36.97 |
| Base · growth 14.4% | 60.2 | 53.25 | 47.63 |
| Bull · growth 19.4% | 78.05 | 68.73 | 61.21 |
FCF to shareholders 3,515 mln USD (operating cash flow − capex, after interest), shares 1,303 mln. Discounted at the shareholder rate, so debt is not subtracted again (assumes stable debt). 5 years of growth, 5 of slowdown, then perpetual growth. Sensitive to assumptions — see the table.