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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 37.74 (-13.2%) | 50.83 (+16.9%) | 62.66 (+44.1%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 30.22 (-30.5%) | 43.49 (+0.0%) | 62.58 (+43.9%) |
History since 2010; now 43.49. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 60.5% | 58.9% | 0.8% | 124 | 52%–69% | as usual |
| 3 months | 73.9% | 65.1% | 4.4% | 46 | 60%–84% | as usual |
| 1 year | 71.4% | 73.3% | 14.2% | 14 | 45%–88% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 46 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.224 vs 0.210 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.