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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 44.37 (-32.5%) | 72.4 (+10.1%) | 123.44 (+87.7%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 22.68 (-65.5%) | 65.76 (+0.0%) | 190.68 (+190.0%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 70 (+6.4%) | 95.05 (+44.5%) | 160 (+143.3%) |
History since 1980; now 65.76. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: below SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI oversold
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 46.9% | 53.6% | 0.1% | 32 | 31%–64% | as usual |
| 3 months | 51.6% | 55.2% | 4.3% | 31 | 35%–68% | as usual |
| 1 year | 65.0% | 66.7% | 24.3% | 20 | 43%–82% | as usual |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 164 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.250 vs 0.243 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.