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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 259.1 (-7.4%) | 347.25 (+24.1%) | 471.94 (+68.6%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 181.49 (-35.1%) | 279.84 (+0.0%) | 431.48 (+54.2%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 325 (+16.1%) | 406.55 (+45.3%) | 500 (+78.7%) |
History since 2004; now 279.84. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: below SMA200 · SMA50 < SMA200 · RSI oversold
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 76.9% | 59.8% | 5.0% | 13 | 50%–92% | weak signal (few cases) |
| 3 months | 70.0% | 62.4% | 11.2% | 10 | 40%–89% | weak signal (few cases) |
| 1 year | 66.7% | 76.2% | 32.4% | 6 | 30%–90% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 67 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.238 vs 0.229 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.