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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 0.99 (-11.5%) | 1.12 (+0.2%) | 1.24 (+10.6%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 1.04 (-6.7%) | 1.12 (+0.0%) | 1.2 (+7.2%) |
History since 2003; now 1.12. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: below SMA200 · SMA50 < SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 46.0% | 50.5% | -0.1% | 126 | 38%–55% | as usual |
| 3 months | 43.8% | 50.5% | 0.2% | 48 | 31%–58% | as usual |
| 1 year | 56.3% | 54.5% | 0.6% | 16 | 33%–77% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 71 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.265 vs 0.257 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.